The Phoenix Real Estate Market in Fall 2025: A Snapshot

The Phoenix Real Estate Market in 2025: A Snapshot

Before diving into why fall may be the sweet spot for real estate moves, it helps to understand where Phoenix’s housing market stands as of late 2025.

Key Trends & Data

1. Home price moderation / slight declines

   • The average home value in Phoenix is ~$408,114, reflecting a ~4.6% decline over the past year. 

   • According to Redfin, the median sale price as of August 2025 was ~$445,000, down ~1.1% year-over-year. 

   • In Greater Phoenix, home prices have fallen ~6.9% since their July 2022 peak. 

2. Longer days on market / more “stale” listings

   • Homes in Phoenix now take about 63–64 days on average to sell, compared to much faster turnover in prior years. 

   • Nearly 47% of listings remained unsold for 60 days or longer at one point in 2025.

3. Increased inventory pressure and shifting power to buyers

   • Listing inventory is growing, and sellers are facing more competition.

   • In the Phoenix metro area, sellers now outnumber buyers more than in almost any U.S. market. 

   • Some analysts believe the market is tipping toward a buyer’s market, with sellers making pricing concessions. 

4. New construction and supply dynamics

   • From 2014 to 2024, housing units in Phoenix grew by ~16.4%, slightly outpacing population growth. 

   • However, construction is slowing, and forecasts suggest population growth may again outpace new supply by 2026. 

5. Mortgage rates remain a headwind

   • High mortgage rates (~6-7% range) continue to dampen affordability for many buyers. 

   • Some models suggest modest recovery in rates (e.g. ~6.1%) in 2026, which could reinvigorate buyer demand. 

In short: the Phoenix market is in flux. Prices are cooling, inventory is rising, and bargaining power is swinging toward buyers. It’s far from a “crash,” but it is a correction and recalibration. 

Why Fall Is a Smart Time to Buy or Sell in Phoenix

Now, let’s zoom in on seasonal dynamics. Fall often gets overshadowed by traditional spring and summer real estate cycles, but in Phoenix, it brings unique advantages. Here are compelling reasons to act in the fall:

For Buyers

1. More listings and options

   • According to national data, the week of October 12–18 tends to have ~32.6% more homes on the market compared to earlier in the year, and prices average ~3.4% below seasonal peaks. 

   • In Phoenix’s more competitive segments, this seasonal bump in supply gives buyers more breathing room to choose and negotiate.

2. Greater negotiating leverage

   • With many listings becoming stale, sellers may be more willing to consider price cuts, concessions, or flexible terms (e.g. covering closing costs).

   • Buyers who act in the fall can often avoid the head-to-head bidding wars that are common in the spring.

3. Less competition / fewer buyers in the market

   • The high rates deter many would-be buyers or delay their purchases until year-end; this thinning of competition can work to your advantage.

   • Serious buyers tend to remain active in fall, meaning you could get more focused, genuine seller attention.

4. Time to prepare before year-end

   • If you secure under contract in the fall, you can aim to close before the calendar year ends — useful for tax planning, moving logistics, or locking in interest rates before year-end rate hikes.

5. Seasonal cost advantages

   • In Phoenix, summer is punishing—outdoor viewings can be tough, landscaping shows poorly in the heat, and buyers may wait. By fall, the weather mellows, making home tours more pleasant and properties more inviting.

For Sellers

1. Less competition — your listing can stand out

   • Many sellers hold off until spring. If you list in the fall, you avoid being buried among a glut of spring listings, making your home more visible.

   • Since buyer traffic is lower but more deliberate, your property may be seen by more serious, motivated buyers.

2. Motivated buyers

   • Buyers active in the fall often have strong motivations (job changes, school year planning, tax advantages). They may act more decisively.

   • Because some properties are already lingering on the market, sellers might attract buyers hoping for deals.

3. Better timing for closing & tax strategies

   • Selling late in the year can allow more control over capital gains timing, tax deductions, or reinvestment planning.

   • If your mortgage is resetting or rates are expected to adjust, selling in the fall gives more predictability.

4. Real estate momentum into the new season

   • If you list in fall and don’t sell immediately, you maintain visibility going into winter and spring. You’re not starting cold in January — your listing is already in the mix.

5. Favorable presentation conditions

   • Landscaping, lighting, and curb appeal tend to look their best in fall — less stress from extreme heat and fewer dead plants than the height of summer.

   • Home staging tends to “pop” in autumnal ambient light and temperatures, which can translate into better photos and impressions.

Tips to Optimize Your Fall Move in Phoenix

• Price smart, but leave room to negotiate — avoid overpricing. Use comparable sales and recent reductions to set realistic expectations.

• Stage both indoor & outdoor spaces — keep yards green, remove dead shrubs, enhance lighting, and make patios comfortable.

• Be flexible with showings — shorter daylight hours, evolving buyer availability — be ready to accommodate.

• Track mortgage rate trends closely — a modest dip may shift market sentiment quickly, so be ready to act or adjust.

• Work with a local, informed agent — Phoenix’s micro-markets shift quickly; local nuances matter (neighborhoods, HOAs, school districts).

• Leverage marketing timing — list early in fall (September/October) to catch buyers before they retreat for the holidays.